School Forecast Data

The Local Authority (LA) produces forecasts of pupil numbers each year in order to plan the number of school places needed. If you are looking for general population forecasts please see the pages compiled by the Research and Marketing Unit.

Known Pre-School Children

Each year the Health Authority provides the LA with data on pre-school children known to be registered in Worcestershire. In previous years this data has been based on children registered with Worcestershire GPs, however from 2016 records will consist of all children registered at a Worcestershire address. This data helps the LA to anticipate rises and falls in the number of children starting school and to plan the number of school places.

First and primary schools receive information on the children living in their catchment area each autumn via the Edulink system. A snapshot of the number of children living in each catchment area is available below. Please read the notes provided to help you understand the data.

Forecast Methodology

The forecasts apply historical transition patterns of take-up of school places to current number on roll data and information on live births provided by the Health Authority to forecast the number of children anticipated to attend Worcestershire Schools for the next several years. Forecasts are produced every academic year for the following September intake.

Countywide Forecast

The Worcestershire Countywide Education Forecast Numbers for 2019 includes all children predicted to attend a mainstream state-funded school within Worcestershire, including maintained and academy schools. For information on demand for places at specialist provision see SEND Sufficiency.

Education Planning Area

The LA divides the county into sixteen Education Districts loosely based around the main population centres. An Education District will contain one or more secondary schools and all the designated feeder schools for those schools. Catholic schools are included in the Education District in which they are located.

Individual School Forecasts

Schools wishing to receive an individual forecast for their school or discuss pupil numbers should contact the Provision Planning Team on 01905 844119.