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School Forecast Data

The Local Authority (LA) produces forecasts of pupil numbers each year in order to plan the number of school places needed. If you are looking for general population forecasts please see the pages compiled by the Research and Marketing Unit.

Known Pre-School Children

Each year the Health Authority provides the LA with data on pre-school children known to be registered in Worcestershire. In previous years this data has been based on children registered with Worcestershire GPs, however from 2016 records will consist of all children registered at a Worcestershire address. This data helps the LA to anticipate rises and falls in the number of children starting school and to plan the number of school places.

First and primary schools receive information on the children living in their catchment area each autumn via the Edulink system. A snapshot of the number of children living in each catchment area is available below. Please read the notes provided to help you understand the data.

Forecast Methodology

The forecasts are prepared using historic number on roll data and information on live births provided by Worcestershire Health Authority. Using this data average trends are identified and applied to current numbers of children to give a forecast for the next few years.

Countywide Forecast

This is the Countywide Education Forecast Numbers for 2016 of numbers for the whole county. It includes all children attending Worcestershire state-funded schools including Academies and Free Schools. The children may not necessarily live in Worcestershire.

Education Planning Area

The LA divides the county into sixteen Education Districts loosely based around the main population centres. An Education District will contain one or more secondary schools and all the designated feeder schools for those schools. Catholic schools are included in the Education District in which they are located.

Individual School Forecasts

Schools wishing to receive an individual forecast for their school or discuss pupil numbers should contact the Provision Planning Team on 01905 844572.