Population Projections
The R&I Unit produce population projections for
Worcestershire and the six districts. These projections are
based on information obtained from ONS on births and deaths, as
well as migration statistics. Population projections are used in
strategic planning, service planning and policy development. The
Unit uses POPGROUP to obtain population
projections up to the year 2035.
The population projections below were released by
ONS in March 2012, and are based
on the indicative estimates which incorporate updated estimates on
immigration for the years 2005-10. The projections look at patterns
of births, deaths and migration into and out of the county and each
district. The ONS 2010-based population projections are trend-based
and do not take into account any changes in policy, environment or
economic climate that may have an effect on future population
numbers.
More details on the ONS 2010-based population projections can be
found on the ONS webpage here.
Projections
The table below gives the ONS 2010-based population projections
split by district for future years.
ONS 2010-based Population Projections, 2010-35 (figures
quoted in thousands)
| |
2010
|
2015
|
2020
|
2025
|
2030
|
2035
|
change 2010-30
|
Percentage change 2010-30
|
|
Bromsgrove
|
93.5
|
96.2
|
99.5
|
102.9
|
106
|
108.7
|
12.5
|
13.4%
|
|
Malvern Hills
|
74.6
|
75.5
|
77.1
|
79.1
|
81
|
82.6
|
6.4
|
8.6%
|
|
Redditch
|
79.7
|
82.2
|
84.8
|
87
|
88.8
|
90.4
|
9.1
|
11.4%
|
|
Worcester City
|
94.4
|
97.6
|
100.2
|
102.5
|
104.7
|
106.8
|
10.3
|
10.9%
|
|
Wychavon
|
117.9
|
121.2
|
124.5
|
127.7
|
130.5
|
132.9
|
12.6
|
10.7%
|
|
Wyre Forest
|
98.5
|
100.0
|
101.8
|
103.4
|
104.7
|
105.9
|
6.2
|
6.3%
|
|
Worcestershire
|
558.6
|
572.8
|
587.9
|
602.7
|
615.8
|
627.2
|
57.2
|
10.2%
|
Source - ONS 2010-based population projections
The ONS 2010-based projections, which it should be remembered
are trend-based, suggest that the population in
Worcestershire will grow by around 57,200 persons (over 10%)
for the 2001-30 time period, to stand at almost 615,800 persons.
The largest increase is projected to be in Bromsgrove, which
has a projected growth of 12,500 (over 13%) with the districts of
Redditch, Worcester City and Wychavon all having projected
increases of over 10%. Wyre Forest has the smallest projected
increase, at around 6,200 persons (6.3%).
For further details, please click the links below for relevant
population projections:
Click to view Graphs of the County Population
Projections for Total Population, Critical Age Groups and Birth
& Deaths
Click to view Population Projection
Graphs for the Districts within Worcestershire
Household
Projections
The CLG produce household projections in conjunction with the
ONS projections. The CLG have yet to produce the 2010-based
household projections, so the 2008-based household projections are
replicated below, using the 2008-based ONS population projections
as a base. Again, these projections are trend
based and do not take into account any changes in policy
or circumstance such as economic climate which may have an impact
on the number of households in the area.
The CLG 2008-based household projections for the 6 districts are
reproduced below:-
CLG 2008-based Household Projections, 2008-30
(figures quoted in thousands)
| |
2008 |
2010 |
2015 |
2020 |
2030 |
change |
perc change |
| Bromsgrove |
37.7 |
38.4 |
40.1 |
42.0 |
45.7 |
8.0 |
21.1% |
| Malvern Hills |
31.7 |
32.2 |
33.7 |
35.2 |
38.3 |
6.6 |
20.7% |
| Redditch |
33.1 |
33.4 |
34.6 |
35.7 |
37.8 |
4.7 |
14.2% |
| Worcester |
40.3 |
40.7 |
42.1 |
43.6 |
46.1 |
5.8 |
14.5% |
| Wychavon |
49.5 |
50.3 |
52.3 |
54.5 |
58.7 |
9.2 |
18.6% |
| Wyre Forest |
42.4 |
43.0 |
44.7 |
46.5 |
49.5 |
7.1 |
16.7% |
| Worcestershire |
234.6 |
238.0 |
247.5 |
257.6 |
275.9 |
41.4 |
17.6% |
Source - CLG 2008-based population
projections
By 2030 the County is projected to have almost 276,000
households, an increase of just over 41,000 households,
or almost 18%. Projected icreases in the districts vary from
8,000 (21%) in Bromsgrove, to just 4,700 (14.2%) in Redditch.
It is noted that the projected increase in the population
of Worcestershire is almost 50,000, compared with an
associated household increase of 41,000. This is because a high
proportion of the household increase is due to an increase in
One-person households.
POPGROUP
POPGROUP is an Excel based computer modelling programme that is
used for calculating population projections. Also available is
HOUSEGROUP for projecting household numbers and LABGROUP for
projections of the labour force. POPGROUP has been developed by the
City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council and Andelin
Associates. Developments are part-funded by Staffordshire,
Shropshire, Derbyshire, Buckinghamshire and Worcestershire County
Councils, Manchester University, and City of Bradford Metropolitan
District Council.
POPGROUP provides a means to make an estimate of current
population and a forecast of future population, with detailed age
and sex composition. Excel data sheets are created for entering
past information, and assumptions about the future, for births and
fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration. The forecast can
refer to one or more population groups (in this case, the districts
within Worcestershire). Standard cohort component accounts and
projections are used to produce the estimates and forecasts.
For more information visit the POPGROUP website
This page was last reviewed 1 May 2012 at 15:31.
The page is next due for review 28 October 2013.