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Population

Population Projections

The R&I Unit produce population projections for Worcestershire and the six districts. These projections are based on information obtained from ONS on births and deaths, as well as migration statistics. Population projections are used in strategic planning, service planning and policy development. The Unit currently uses POPGROUP to obtain population projections up to the year 2021.

The 2011-based population projections reproduced below were released by ONS in September 2012, and are based on the 2011 Census population estimates. They use the same assumptions as were used in the 2010-based projections, so consider the estimates on internal and international migration for the years 2005-10. The projections look at patterns of births, deaths and migration into and out of the county and each district. The ONS 2011-based population projections are trend-based and do not take into account any changes in policy, environment or economic climate that may have an effect on future population numbers.

More details on the ONS 2011-based population projections can be found on the ONS webpage here.

Projections

The table below gives the ONS 2011-based population projections split by district for future years.

ONS 2011-based Population Projections, 2011-21 (figures quoted in thousands)

	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	2016	2021	change 2011-21	Percentage change 2011-21
Bromsgrove	93.7	94.2	94.7	95.2	95.8	96.4	99.7	5.9	6.3%
Malvern Hills	74.7	75.1	75.5	75.9	76.4	76.8	79.4	4.7	6.2%
Redditch	84.3	84.7	85.0	85.4	85.8	86.2	87.9	3.6	4.2%
Worcester City	98.7	99.0	99.2	99.5	99.8	100.1	101.4	2.7	2.7%
Wychavon	117.1	117.7	118.4	119.1	119.8	120.5	123.9	6.9	5.9%
Wyre Forest	98.0	98.4	98.7	99.1	99.5	99.8	101.6	3.5	3.6%
Worcestershire	566.6	569.0	571.6	574.3	577.0	579.8	593.8	27.3	4.8%

source - ONS mid-2011-based Population Projections

The ONS 2011-based projections, which use the 2011 mid-year estimates as a base but use the 2010-based assumptions and are trend-based, suggest that the population in Worcestershire will grow by around 27,300 persons (almost 5%) for the 2011-21 time period, to stand at around 594,000 persons. The largest increases of over 6% are projected to be in Bromsgrove, (an increase of 5,900 persons) and Malvern Hills (an increase of 4,700 persons) whilst Wychavon has the largest projected increase in terms of numbers, at 6,900 persons (just under 6%). Worcester City has the smallest projected increase over the ten-year period, of 2,700 persons (2.7%), whilst the population in Wyre Forest also has a relatively low projected increase.

For further details, please click the links below for relevant population projections:

Click to view Graphs of the County Population Projections for Total Population, Critical Age Groups and Birth & Deaths

Click to view Population Projection Graphs for the Districts within Worcestershire

Household Projections

The CLG produce household projections in conjunction with the ONS projections. The CLG have yet to produce the 2010-based household projections, so the 2008-based household projections are replicated below, using the 2008-based ONS population projections as a base. Again, these projections are trend based and do not take into account any changes in policy or circumstance such as economic climate which may have an impact on the number of households in the area.

The CLG 2008-based household projections for the 6 districts are reproduced below:-

CLG 2008-based Household Projections, 2008-30 (figures quoted in thousands)

	2008	2010	2015	2020	2030	change	perc change
Bromsgrove	37.7	38.4	40.1	42.0	45.7	8.0	21.1%
Malvern Hills	31.7	32.2	33.7	35.2	38.3	6.6	20.7%
Redditch	33.1	33.4	34.6	35.7	37.8	4.7	14.2%
Worcester	40.3	40.7	42.1	43.6	46.1	5.8	14.5%
Wychavon	49.5	50.3	52.3	54.5	58.7	9.2	18.6%
Wyre Forest	42.4	43.0	44.7	46.5	49.5	7.1	16.7%
Worcestershire	234.6	238.0	247.5	257.6	275.9	41.4	17.6%

Source - CLG 2008-based population projections

By 2030 the County is projected to have almost 276,000 households, an increase of just over 41,000 households, or almost 18%. Projected icreases in the districts vary from 8,000 (21%) in Bromsgrove, to just 4,700 (14.2%) in Redditch.

It is noted that the projected increase in the population of Worcestershire is almost 50,000, compared with an associated household increase of 41,000. This is because a high proportion of the household increase is due to an increase in One-person households.

POPGROUP

POPGROUP is an Excel based computer modelling programme that is used for calculating population projections. Also available is HOUSEGROUP for projecting household numbers and LABGROUP for projections of the labour force. POPGROUP has been developed by the City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council and Andelin Associates. Developments are part-funded by Staffordshire, Shropshire, Derbyshire, Buckinghamshire and Worcestershire County Councils, Manchester University, and City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council.

POPGROUP provides a means to make an estimate of current population and a forecast of future population, with detailed age and sex composition. Excel data sheets are created for entering past information, and assumptions about the future, for births and fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration. The forecast can refer to one or more population groups (in this case, the districts within Worcestershire). Standard cohort component accounts and projections are used to produce the estimates and forecasts.

For more information visit the POPGROUP website