Search Suggestions
Close Search Suggestions
A - Z of Resident Services:
You are here:
Population Projections

Population Projections

The R&I Unit produce population projections for Worcestershire and the six districts. These projections are based on information obtained from ONS on births and deaths, as well as migration statistics. Population projections are used in strategic planning, service planning and policy development. The Unit currently uses POPGROUP to obtain population projections up to the year 2021.

The 2011-based population projections reproduced below were released by ONS in September 2012, and are based on the 2011 Census population estimates. They use the same assumptions as were used in the 2010-based projections, so consider the estimates on internal and international migration for the years 2005-10. The projections look at patterns of births, deaths and migration into and out of the county and each district. The ONS 2011-based population projections are trend-based and do not take into account any changes in policy, environment or economic climate that may have an effect on future population numbers.

More details on the ONS 2011-based population projections can be found on the ONS webpage here.

Projections

The table below gives the ONS 2011-based population projections split by district for future years.

ONS 2011-based Population Projections, 2011-21 (figures quoted in thousands)

 

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2021

change 2011-21

Percentage change 2011-21

Bromsgrove

93.7

94.2

94.7

95.2

95.8

96.4

99.7

5.9

6.3%

Malvern Hills

74.7

75.1

75.5

75.9

76.4

76.8

79.4

4.7

6.2%

Redditch

84.3

84.7

85.0

85.4

85.8

86.2

87.9

3.6

4.2%

Worcester City

98.7

99.0

99.2

99.5

99.8

100.1

101.4

2.7

2.7%

Wychavon

117.1

117.7

118.4

119.1

119.8

120.5

123.9

6.9

5.9%

Wyre Forest

98.0

98.4

98.7

99.1

99.5

99.8

101.6

3.5

3.6%

Worcestershire

566.6

569.0

571.6

574.3

577.0

579.8

593.8

27.3

4.8%

source - ONS mid-2011-based Population Projections

The ONS 2011-based projections, which use the 2011 mid-year estimates as a base but use the 2010-based assumptions and are trend-based, suggest that the population in Worcestershire will grow by around  27,300 persons (almost 5%) for the 2011-21 time period, to stand at around 594,000 persons. The largest increases of over 6% are projected to be in Bromsgrove, (an increase of 5,900 persons) and Malvern Hills (an increase of 4,700 persons) whilst Wychavon has the largest projected increase in terms of numbers, at 6,900 persons (just under 6%). Worcester City has the smallest projected increase over the ten-year period, of 2,700 persons (2.7%), whilst the population in Wyre Forest also has a relatively low projected increase. 

For further details, please click the links below for relevant population projections:

Click to view Graphs of the County Population Projections for Total Population, Critical Age Groups and Birth & Deaths (PDF 158 KB)

Click to view Population Projection Graphs for the Districts within Worcestershire (PDF 223 KB)

Household Projections

The CLG produce household projections in conjunction with the ONS projections. The CLG have produced the 2011-based household projections, that use the 2011-based ONS population projections as a base, in April 2013. Again, these projections are trend based and do not take into account any changes in policy or circumstance such as economic climate which may have an impact on the number of households in the area.

The CLG 2011-based household projections for the 6 districts are reproduced below:-

  2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2021
Bromsgrove 38.3 38.6 38.9 39.2 39.5 39.8 41.4
Malvern Hills 32.2 32.5 32.7 32.9 33.2 33.4 34.6
Redditch 34.8 35.0 35.2 35.4 35.6 35.8 36.9
Worcester 42.0 42.2 42.4 42.6 42.8 43.1 44.0
Wychavon 49.5 49.9 50.2 50.6 51.0 51.4 53.3
Wyre Forest 43.0 43.3 43.6 43.8 44.1 44.4 45.7
Worcestershire 239.8 241.5 243.0 244.6 246.2 247.9 255.9
Source - CLG 2011-based population projections

 

By 2021 the County is projected to have almost 256,000 households, an increase of almost 16,100 households (almost 7%) on 2011 figures. Bromsgrove, Malvern Hills and Wychavon each have a projected household increase of around 8%, whilst Worcester City has the lowest projected increase in the county at less than 5%.

It is noted that the projected increase in the population of Worcestershire is around 27,000, compared with an associated household increase of 16,000. This is because a high proportion of the household increase is projected to be due to an increase in One-person households.

Further splits by age of household representative or by types of household are available on request - please contact Mike Rice using the contact details below.

 

POPGROUP

POPGROUP is an Excel based computer modelling programme that is used for calculating population projections. Also available is HOUSEGROUP for projecting household numbers and LABGROUP for projections of the labour force. POPGROUP has been developed by the City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council and Andelin Associates. Developments are part-funded by Staffordshire, Shropshire, Derbyshire, Buckinghamshire and Worcestershire County Councils, Manchester University, and City of Bradford Metropolitan District Council.

POPGROUP provides a means to make an estimate of current population and a forecast of future population, with detailed age and sex composition. Excel data sheets are created for entering past information, and assumptions about the future, for births and fertility, deaths and mortality, and migration. The forecast can refer to one or more population groups (in this case, the districts within Worcestershire). Standard cohort component accounts and projections are used to produce the estimates and forecasts.

For more information visit the POPGROUP website

Further Information

In this section

More Information

See also in our website

External websites

We are not responsible for the content of external sites. Read more

Was this information helpful?

Please rate the content of this page
Would you like to provide any additional comments relating to the content of this page? Your feedback will help us to improve the content of our web pages


This page was last reviewed 16 October 2013 at 12:13.
The page is next due for review 14 April 2015.